EDGE3 — Roadmap

The board

Three columns. Live today. In flight. Coming soon. Nothing else.

Live today

FB Roster Retention Risk v8AUC 0.718. 2026 portal cycle predictions.
BB Roster Retention Risk v3AUC 0.778. 2026 portal cycle predictions.
FB Performance Trajectory v12024 forward-holdout AUC 0.770/0.781. 7,486 forward 2025 predictions.
BB Performance Trajectory v1AUC 0.733/0.739. 2026-27 forward predictions.
Combined R/Y/G R/Y/GFB 2025 + BB 2026-27. The decision-grade signal.
Use-case artifacts shippedWisconsin scorecard, UNM transfer compare, Continuous Intelligence Loop demos.

In flight

FB Performance Trajectory — native 2025 featuresBuild transfer_risk_features_v7_2025.csv from already-pulled PFF snaps. Replace 2024 proxy.~3-5h
FB Roster Retention Risk v9Retrain through 2025 portal cycle. Forward predictions for 2026-27.~0.5 session
FB Performance Trajectory v2 — feature parity with BB v3Add hometown ACS economics, portal history, geographic context. Validate AUC vs. v1.~1 session
CSUN BB scorecardKillin / Newman portal-fit review — conversation in flight.
Demo site upgradeRefresh interactive table with 2025 FB predictions. Reframe landing around use cases.~1 session

Coming soon

Coach Suite — authenticated micrositesPer-school demo.edge3.net/[program]/ with real roster + signal flow. Coach / athlete / parent / AD logins.~2-3 wk MVP
BB Performance Trajectory — CBBD recruiting team rollup + survey schemaTeam-level recruiting class quality features + survey instrument definition.~1.5 sessions
API spec for institutional buyersSurvey ingestion, predictions read, audit log endpoints.
Security + complianceSOC2, FERPA stance, data-processing-agreement template, NIL legal review.
Wallet brand spec + athlete-facing surfacesSeparate palette for athlete/parent UX. Build before any athlete-side surface ships.
Athletic-department system integrationsTeamworks, Front Rush, Slate, Synergy — documented integration paths.

Models — current state

Every AUC out-of-sample, time-aware, no leakage.

Model

Version

AUC

Predicts

Status

FB Roster Retention Risk

0.718

2026 portal cycle

Live

BB Roster Retention Risk

0.778

2026 portal cycle

Live

FB Performance Trajectory

v1 · refreshed 2026-04-26

0.770 / 0.781
2024 forward holdout

2024 (refreshed) + 2025 (NEW)

Live

BB Performance Trajectory

0.733 / 0.739

2026-27 forward-looking

Live

FB Combined R/Y/G

v1 · refreshed 2026-04-26

—

2024 + 2025 (NEW)

Live

BB Combined R/Y/G

—

2026-27

Live

Use cases shipped

Real coach + real team + real stated needs — run end-to-end through EDGE3.

Wisconsin FB · 2024 roster

Program Program Positional Fit Scorecard for Coach Fickell

39 players against program + staff-era baselines. Verified 2026 staff. Shipped 2026-04-22.

View →

UNM BB · Coach Olen

Transfer Fit Review — 3 portal candidates

Anya / Butka / Petraitis vs. stated thresholds, SR-verified rates, 2026-27 churn, slot-fit grades. Shipped 2026-04-22.

View →

Continuous Intelligence Loop

Live re-scoring demo — FB + BB

Mettauer (FB) and Chol (BB) trajectory shifts demoed live. Survey + parent + snaps + social listening updating R/Y/G in real time.

FB → · BB →

Caveats

Things to know about the numbers above

All AUCs reported are out-of-sample, time-aware (no leakage).
Players without a prior-year grade are flagged No Baseline rather than imputed.
Forward-looking 2025 FB predictions use 2024 v7 features as proxy context until 2025 v7 features are built (priority #1 in flight).
2024 PFF defense + 2025 PFF blocking were partial in earlier consolidated files. Full-season splices applied 2026-04-26.

Companion docs

Where this roadmap connects.

Methodology

Continuous Intelligence Loop

The four input streams — survey, parent, snaps, social.

Methodology

Social Listening Layer

The always-on stream that catches drift between cycles.

Methodology

Survey Scoring

Response → dimension → model feature column.